Projects Fail Before They Begin.
Projects Don’t Fail at Completion. They Fail Before They Begin.
Global research shows that the greatest determinant of project success is not execution—it is the quality of commercial, contractual and project control decisions made before delivery starts.
Executive Summary
Research across major capital projects consistently demonstrates that front-end planning has the greatest influence on project outcomes. McKinsey’s analysis of more than 500 projects valued above $100 million identified average cost overruns of 79% and schedule delays of 52%. In the UK, only 11% of Government Major Projects were assessed as having a high confidence of successful delivery.
The common causes are remarkably consistent: poor scope definition, unrealistic programme assumptions, ineffective risk allocation, weak contract administration and inadequate project controls established too late. These are commercial failures—not engineering failures—and they are preventable.
The Numbers
What the Data Tells Us
Projects rarely fail because of unforeseen events during delivery. They fail because the commercial and contractual foundations were never robust enough to support successful execution. Every major study reaches the same conclusion: poorly defined scope, unrealistic cost estimates, ineffective contract administration and weak change control create problems that become increasingly difficult—and expensive—to recover.
What Good Looks Like – The Valestra Front-End Assurance Model
Stage One – Pre-Contract: Contract Guard – Independent review of contract terms, risk allocation, programme assumptions and payment mechanisms before execution.
Stage Two – Mobilisation: Controls Build – Implementation of cost baselines, project controls, earned value management, risk registers and structured change management before delivery begins.
Stage Three – Delivery: Change Command – Live management of contractual notices, compensation events and entitlement from day one to preserve commercial value.
Why This Matters
Front-end investment delivers the highest commercial return.
Independent contract review reduces avoidable risk before it is accepted.
Early project controls enable intervention rather than retrospective reporting.
Commercial discipline established at mobilisation protects profitability throughout delivery.
The Valestra Position
“The 79% average cost overrun on major projects is not a mystery. It is the predictable consequence of contracts signed without proper scrutiny, projects mobilised without proper controls and change managed without proper discipline. None of it is inevitable”
Key Takeaway
The evidence is consistent across global research: the difference between successful and unsuccessful projects is rarely technical. It is the quality of commercial decisions made before and during mobilisation. Valestra exists to provide the certainty, control and performance needed to close that gap before value is lost.
Sources
McKinsey & Company – Seize the Decade: Maximizing Value Through Preconstruction Excellence (2022)
Infrastructure & Projects Authority – Annual Report on Major Projects 2023–24 (January 2025)
Institution of Civil Engineers – Why Do Major Infrastructure Projects Cost So Much and Take So Long? (May 2025)